cecil_b

I like to play things by the numbers when calculating risks. I've been looking around for grow/bust statistics and found a veritable treasure trove of information out there, much of which put my mind at ease. Some of it's kind of disturbing, but I think everyone will find these factoids interesting:

• There were 735,000 marijuana-related arrests in the US in 2000. 88% of those were for possession, the remainder (about 161,000) were charged with sale/manufacture. -NORML
  
  By 2002, that number has decreased to 697,000 people. Of those, 83,000 were charged with sale/manufacture. -FBI Uniform Crime Report, 2002
  
  Nationwide in 1999, only 1.6% of all individuals suspected of drug offenses were suspected of felony manufacturing not related to trafficking or conspiracy. -US DOJ Federal Report on Drug Offense Trends, 1999.

• Despite a concerted publicity campaign, the DEA reports declining marijuana seizures & arrests:

  Year__Seizures____Arrests
  1999...337,000 Kg....704,000
  2000...331,000 Kg....735,000
  2001...271,000 Kg....723,000
  2002...195,000 Kg....697,000

  - 2002 Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program
  
  By comparison, marijuana offenses in Canada have increased by 81% over the past 5 years, while cannabis consumption by Canadians has steadily decreased, indicating a strong export market, mostly to the US. -Globe and Mail Canada, Feb. 2004

• In the UK there were 75,000 marijuana arrests in 1995, including both possession and sale/manufacture. -NORML

• Blacks are 2.89 times more likely than whites to be charged with a marijuana offense in the US. -NORML Race Report, 2000

• Women constitute 43% of individuals charged with marijuana offenses. -FBI Uniform Crime Report, 2002

• US DEA figures include the 50 US states and Washington DC and use those statistics to prove that the "war on drugs" is being won. However, US territories and possessions such as Guam, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands are not counted despite an acknowledgement that significant amounts of marijuana is both used and cultivated in these places. -US DEA "Drug Trade in the Carribean," August 2001

• Denmark has the highest marijuana use in the world per capita (who knew?) -www.everyonedoesit.com (UK)

• Marijuana is considered the #4 highest value cash crop in the US on average, estimated at $10 billion in value. In some states, marijuana's value as a crop is even higher. In Massachusetts, marijuana is the #2 cash crop (next to cranberries), and in California it is the #1 crop, beating out grapes by a healthy margin -NORML Crop Report

• An estimated 12.8 million marijuana plants were cultivated in the US in 1997. Of those, 32% were seized by LEO, lowering the total harvest to approximately 8.7 million plants. Of those plants seized, about half were considered non-viable. -NORML Crop Report (Note: ALL plants seized were counted in the reports, including feral hemp, non-viable males and clones. A plant's sex, potency or viability was not considered.)

• In 1997, DEA/LEO eradicated 237 million feral hemp plants (ditchweed). -NORML Crop Report

• By 2002, that number had dropped by more than half, to 112 million. - Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 2002.

• In 1992, the DEA estimated it eliminated 33% of all domestically cultivated marijuana. -1997 DEA Domestic Cannabis Eradicaton Program Report.

• In 1998, the DEA reported there was 32% more marijuana cultivation in the US than it had originally suspected. -DRCNet "Response to the DEA Briefing Book"

• In Canada, marijuana seizure doubled between 1996-1997. In 1998, 1,025,800 plants were seized, but dropped to 954,000 in 1999. The overwhelming majority of busts were in Vancouver, BC. -USDOJ Drug Intelligence Brief 12/2000

• In Canada, "Green Teams" of RCMP busted 3,279 growing operations in BC alone in 1999. The average operation contained 150-200 plants. -USDOJ Drug Intelligence Brief 12/2000

• 82% of grows busted in British Columbia were operated by either Asian crime gangs or the Hell's Angels Motorcycle Club, mostly on property rented solely for cultivation. -USDOJ Drug Intelligence Brief 12/2000

• In 1998, the US states with the highest concentrations of indoor cultivation activity include Alaska, California, Florida, Kentucky, and Oregon (in no particular order). -1998 US DEA Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program

• In 2000, Washington and Wisconsin replaced Kentucky and Alaska on the top 5 indoor cultivation list. -2000 US DEA Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program

• In 2000, the top states for outdoor cultivation included Hawaii, Tennessee, Florida California, and Kentucky, which in total accounted for over 3/4 of all eradicated outdoor plants in the US that year. -2000 US DEA Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program

• In 1998, 11% of domestic marijuana plants were cultivated indoors. -1998 US DEA Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program

• By 2005, 50% of all marijuana consumed in the US will be cultivated domestically. - US DEA

• In 2002, approximately 33,000 outdoor cultivation plots and 2500 indoor growing areas were eradicated in the US. An average of 93 plants were seized at an outdoor cultivation plot, and 85 plants were seized at the average indoor grow. About 8200 persons were arrested in the US, and over 3500 weapons were confiscated. - Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 2002

• Although there are states with higher seizures in terms of numbers of arrests and plants, Florida is considered the most zealous US state for cannabis investigation and seizure. In 2002, 457 persons were arrested for cultivation, and 38,000 plants were eradicated at 550 growing sites (181 indoor sites) statewide. Firearms were seized at 347 of the growing sites. Despite increases in market quantity and potency of marijuana, the number of eradicated plants has dropped by 85%, and the number of persons arrested has dropped by 65% since 1992. -FL State Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program Brief, 2002.

• By comparision, in the city of Vancouver alone there were 744 persons arrested for for sale/manufacture of marijuana, and 378 grow operations were seized in the same time period. - Globe and Mail Canada, Feb. 2004

• In 2002, the states with the highest cultivation rates (excluding feral hemp) were:
  
  State..............Cultiv'd Plants....Outdoor Sites...Indoor Sites..Arrests
  California..........126,771,000........2,104.................477................1,316
  Tennessee........485,819...............1,976................1....................110
  Hawii................435,789...............9,856................3....................739
  Kentucky..........378,063...............7,803................41...................409
  North Carolina...112,107...............1,111................17...................7
  
  In 2002, the states with the lowest cultivation rates were:
  
  State.............Cultiv'd Plants.....Outdoor Sites...Indoor Sites..Arrests
  Wyoming.........32........................0.......................5....................7
  Delaware.........108......................1.......................5....................29
  Montana..........513......................2.......................15..................26
  Rhode Island...551......................17......................0..............,.....4
  Iowa...............1,036...................5........................9...................75
  
  California alone accounted for about half the number of plants seized, but only about 15% of arrests. The state with the lowest number of arrests is Rhode Island (4).
  
  Indiana had the highest number of feral hemp plants eradicated, at just over 53 million. Indiana's efforts eradicated about half of all ditchweed reported in the US. - Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 2002.
  
  Use of potentially hazardous herbicides and fugicides to eliminate harmless feral hemp has increase four-fold in the last 5 years. -DRCNet "Response to the DEA Briefing Book"

• Marijuana potency has dramatically increased since 1970.
  
  1970 1.5%
  1989 6.97%
  1991 11.72%
  
  - DEA Drug Report 1993, p. 63

• In 1998, 2.7% of state and 11.8% of federal prison populations were incarcerated for marijuana related offenses, totalling about 45,000 persons. - "Survey of Prison and Jail Inmates at Midyear 1998," Bureau of Justice Statistics; March 1999

• DEA Mobile Enforcement Teams (METs) operate in the following locations:

Pritchard, Alabama
Selma, Alabama
Eloy/Pinal, Arizona
Bullhead City, Arizona
Century & Lennox Stations, Calif.
Gardena, California
L.A. (Rampart area), California
L.A. (Century, Lennox Station), Calif.
San Luis Obispo, California
Oceanside, California
Oxnard/Ventura, California
Richmond, California
Vallejo, California
Denver, Colorado
Fort Pierce, Florida
Bowden, Georgia
Colombus, Georgia
Fort Wayne, Indiana
Lynn, Massachusetts
Worcester, Massachusetts
Lincoln Park/Melvindale, Mich.
Pontiac, Michigan
Ypsilanti, Michigan
Fountain Park, Missouri
Sikeston, Missouri
Asbury Park, New Jersey
Camden, New Jersey
Albany, New York
Niagra Falls, New York
Southampton, NewYork
Woodburn, Oregon
Bristol, Pennsylvania
Arlington, Texas
Galveston, Texas
Chincoteague, Virginia
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Manassas, Virginia
Puyallup, Washington

METs operate on referrals from local LE and community tips and focus their efforts largely on organized crime and violent drug crimes. Most MET operations revolve around opium, cocaine & crack, and methamphetamine trafficking. -DRCNet "Response to the DEA Briefing Book."

• The DEA employs 103 pilots trained in aerial reconnaisance to cover the entire US, Central and South America. These pilots are based in Fort Worth, TX. Aerial drones and blimps were discontinued for surveillance due to unpredictability of equipment. -DRCNet "Response to the DEA Briefing Book"

Some observations on this data:

Both marijuana use and cultivation (indoors and outdoors) is widespread in both the US and the world. Marijuana is cultivated indoors and outdooors in all 50 United States.

Large commercial grows, especially those operated by domestic and international organized crime, remain the #1 target of US Federal and State LEO. The overwhelming majority of operations busted were outdoors.

Despite additional state and federal government funding and more intrusive laws, marijuana seizures and arrests have actually dropped substantially since 9/11 and the passage of the US Federal Patriot Act. It is not known if the decline is due to fewer or smarter cultivators, or greater imports from overseas.

A significant portion of law enforcement activity is concentrated on trafficking, especially across international borders. Also noteworthy, many state and local governments spend significant resources pursuing and eradicating otherwise benign feral hemp, or "ditchweed" with potencies so low as to make it nearly impossible to achieve any intoxicating effect if consumed. Much of this eradication effort comes at the expense of the general public health and environmental welfare.

Statistically, an outdoor grow is 92.5% more likely to get busted than an indoor grow (excluding feral hemp). However, common sense would dictate that nearly every indoor grow that gets busted results in an arrest, which is not true for outdoor grows. Chances of arrest increase statistically with number of plants cultivated, implying trafficking.

The DEA estimates that only 32% of cultivated plants are discovered and eradicated (itself a questionable number when refuting evidence is considered). The overwhelming majority of LEO effort based on commercial operations, those conducted by organized crime, and large scale outdoor grows. According to the DOJ, persons who were suspected (but not necessarily charged) with manufacturing only accounted for only 1.6% of suspects in all drug cases. Marijuana cultivation was not isolated from this group, which included those suspected of manufacture of all drugs. Thus, one could deduce that discovery and arrests of small-scale, personal-use cultivators is extremely low (0.1-0.3% or less).

__________________
"I am kind of paranoid in reverse. I suspect people of plotting to make me happy." - J. D. Salinger

My Grow v1.0 Journal Skunk #1 & DP Blueberry in soil.
My Grower's Dictionary v1.2 Updated 3/14/04... Check it out and comment for the benefit of all.
Also visit the Cultivation Risk Report. Maybe it will put your mind at ease (or maybe not!)
More advanced grower? Check out the CO2 Enrichment Guide.

vernonsupreme

very interesting report cecil, good stuff for everyone to know.

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afterburner

Quite interesting report... slightly comforting, yet completly terrifying...


Thanks for sharing cecil!

Afterburner

Apollo

Cecil B-

An excellent report!

Keep up the good work.

Apollo

bobbooty

good info. it should also be noted that you can actually look up the details of arrests related to cultivation by county in each state (for some states).

__________________

Welcome to gardenscure.com. Growing marijuana in the United States is a federal offence. Aquisition of live cannabis seeds is illegal in the United States. The Garden's Cure Posting Guidelines can be found here.The Acceptable Use Policy can be found here. The grow guide can be found here. My SoG growroom can be seen in my journal. want to learn more about medical marijuana in the US? check out the Americans For Safe Access site here. and MediCann here.

CyberBud

Wow am i happy not to live in the usa.

We just had a big time grower bustet in my contry i belive he had about 100 plants growing indoors, he only got a slap on the hand and a no no.

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STILL SMOKING THAT G THING

420.kAtoS.604

haha....buddy i know got busted with 16000w/800 plants in bc, and got conditional discharge.....hahahhaaha

CyberBud

HaHa Damm you lucky bast...

__________________
STILL SMOKING THAT G THING

cecil_b

Hey - thanks folks. I have to do something to keep myself busy while I want for the seeds to arrive The county-by-county bust stats would be interesting to see if someone else wants to aggregate all that data! It took me long enough to do this. I'll let the DEA bean counters take care of that...

-cb

__________________
"I am kind of paranoid in reverse. I suspect people of plotting to make me happy." - J. D. Salinger

My Grow v1.0 Journal Skunk #1 & DP Blueberry in soil.
My Grower's Dictionary v1.2 Updated 3/14/04... Check it out and comment for the benefit of all.
Also visit the Cultivation Risk Report. Maybe it will put your mind at ease (or maybe not!)
More advanced grower? Check out the CO2 Enrichment Guide.

bobbooty

ugh....its a lot of data, but heres the link to the page. (click on your state to view the counties)

NORML's County-by-County View of Marijuana Arrests in the U.S. 1995 - 1997

__________________

Welcome to gardenscure.com. Growing marijuana in the United States is a federal offence. Aquisition of live cannabis seeds is illegal in the United States. The Garden's Cure Posting Guidelines can be found here.The Acceptable Use Policy can be found here. The grow guide can be found here. My SoG growroom can be seen in my journal. want to learn more about medical marijuana in the US? check out the Americans For Safe Access site here. and MediCann here.